Benenson Strategy Group for Tim Walz (5/17-19, likely voters):
Tim Walz (D-inc): 57
Dick Day (R): 22
Undecided: 21Tim Walz (D-inc): 60
Brian Davis (R): 20
Undecided: 21
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Wow. If this isn’t evidence of a seriously depressed GOP base, I don’t know what is. This one isn’t even going to be close.
(H/T: MN Publius)
I wonder if the gas price/economy issues are now starting to inform the voters (polls) on the inherent problems with team Red. On the flip side – we need to continue the search for “diamond in the rough” races that once appeared safe R.
Bush on narrowly carried this district, 51%-47%…I believe it’s possible, even probably, that our candidate this year will actually carry the district, even just narrowly.
This is a Democratic district now.
As a person who goes to college in Winona, MN for most of the year, this new poll makes me feel so much better. Tim is our poster child for the underdog. He has restored a lot of hope back into the voters in MN-1. He deserves to continue to serve his constituents in Minnesota. Walz is extremely popular in his district and represents many diverse demographics. He is supported by education leaders, transportation, veteran, and sportsmen throughout the entire district. This is great news for a district that WILL vote for Obama this November. We have many college cities in MN-1 and many students will be out to vote for Obama and the rest of the Democrats.
CQ Politics has this race as “Leans Democrat” on the balance of power scorecard, one of 21 races in that category.
Insofar as to say if I have to worry about a candidate with a 35-40% lead even with 21% undecided, we might as well move all these races to Likely Democrat, move all the Likely to Solid, and move the toss-ups to Lean Democratic. If we did that with CQ’s ratings, that basically gives the Democrats 247 (199 Safe, 12 Likely, 21 Leans, 15 Toss-up).
So then we are dealing with the 22 races that are currently listed as Lean Republican, which given our “wave shift” moves those to Toss-ups. These are races like Musgrave CO-04, Shays CT-04, Kirk IL-11, Walberg MI-07, Knollenberg MI-09, Fossella NY-13, and Reynolds NY-26. If we even get half of these races, that’s 11 more, taking the total to 258. That’s 258 to 177!
I previously assumed 250 was the Democrat ceiling in the house, along with 57 in the Senate. Times are changing.
Whenever they mention tough races in MN and they include this one, I just kind of shook my head and thought, no, he’ll win yb 60% probably. And when the Republicans over at MinnesotaDemocratsExposed claimed this to be a close race, I said, I doubt it, I dont know why but I have a feeling this will be a safe dem.
Thank you, vindication. The GOP will be dead in Minnesota within two more cycles when we take back the governor’s mansion.
I happen think McCain is going to pick Pawlenty given their long ties. If he did, could that ticket conceivably carry the state?
Anyone in MN now, what is the deal with the governor? How conservative is he? I know he barely won re-election, and only because Hatch made that mistake. Is this guy particularly well liked now? I am curious of peoples’ views on him. To me at least, he seems like the youthful face McCain needs, but I do not think he would ultimately put Minnesota in the red column.
Since so many Minnesotans are here…
What’s up with this district? Why can’t we seem to put a glove on Kline? I know Rowley turned out to be a terrible candidate, but this looks like a very winnable district and I know a Dem used to represent before Kline came. Is Kline that popular, kind of like Ramstad?
I think MN-02 on the list of districts which we could win but have kind of ignored in past cycles, sort of like NJ-02 in that regard.
During the summer time, I live in Lakeville, MN, which is also John Kline’s Home. The past few candidate the DFL has ran against Kline has been good at the beginning but messes by the end. But Kline is not that popular in his district, he is just more popular than the Democrats we have ran against him. Steve Sarvi, the current candidate is the best candidate in our district since Bill Luther. Kline touts his Military career as the person who carried the briefcase for two presidents, but Sarvi is was in Afghanistan. Kline is pathetic, he does not hold town hall meetings and ignores his constituents. He is the most conservative member of the Minnesota delegation and one of the most repulsive people in the world. I know where he lives and his neighbors are all Democrats who put HUGE signs for any Democrat facing toward his house. (It is great!)
But if McCain were to pick Pawlenty, it would be a waste of space on the ticket. Pawlenty was barely re-elected in 2006 and is not conservative enough to help him in the general. Minnesota proudly has the longest record of voting for the Democratic presidential candidate and will not go for McCain this next year!
2006: Tim Walz (D) 53 percent, Rep. Gil Gutknecht (R) 47 percent
2008: Tim Walz 65, GOP 35.
At least that’s a good guess based on that poll. That’s a big swing in just two years and it is likely that Obama will benefit from that as well.
This is a likely pick-up for the Dems while Minnesota is also in the Like Dem category for the presidential race.
Do you see a gain in the White House as well?
My predictions:
Governors…DEM 29, GOP 21 (DEM+1)
US House… DEM 256, GOP 179 (DEM+20)
US Senate… DEM 58, GOP 42 (DEM+7)
White House…DEM 1, GOP 0 (DEM+1)
For now…
Supreme Court…DEM 4, GOP 5 (NC)